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2009: The Year Ahead

PC Retail asks seven industry figures for their 2009 predictions
Dec 11

As we bid farewell to economically battered 2008 and cautiously welcome in the New Year, Andrew Wooden gathers up prominent industry figures and asks them whether the channel can look to a better or worse time in 2009...

Gerald Grattoni,
UK and Ireland Channel Manager, Intel


Economic conditions are challenging and it does make predicting events more tricky. What Intel will do as a company is to continue to execute to our roadmap. We have a very exciting range of products launching in the remainder of this year and also into 2009, which I‘m very much looking forward to, and these will drive new levels of performance for computing.

For vendors, the ability to evolve and build sustainable revenue streams and customer loyalty through servicing models and/or increased specialisation will be key. As Gordon Moore once said: “Recessions always end and innovation allows some companies to emerge from them stronger than before.”


Sarah Kidner,
Editor, Computing Which?


I don’t think computer retailers will suffer too much. Technology is one area where the price of components continues to fall. Consumers will continue to see the prices of key technology products falling. However, I'd like to see more emphasis on sustainable/green products and on the human costs of keeping prices down.

It'll be interesting to watch Microsoft ramp up the PR for Windows 7, and for its cloud computing proposition. Personally, I don't think consumers have warmed to Windows Vista. Whether they'll warm to Windows 7… the jury's still out.


Michael Breeze,
Marketing Director, Interactive Ideas


I think it would be a brave man who would predict any large growth within the retail channel in 2009. There will no doubt be some companies that will show growth greater than the market average due to being able to take advantage of product trends or through providing the service today’s consumer demands.

But I would also think that we will see a number underperforming and others disappearing completely; when times are hard it does sort out the well run companies from the bad.

It's difficult to look past the credit crunch – consumers won’t have high levels of expendable income and confidence is low. Some products will tempt consumers to spend but the general trend will be to keep hold of their money.

The industry event I’m looking forward to most in 2009 has to be the PC Retail Awards.


Richard Baker,
European Channel Marketing Manager, AMD

Of course the downturn in the economy is going to make everything more difficult for retailers and suppliers alike. But this could almost be viewed as an opportunity if retailers and suppliers can make the most of this change in market trends; it is often said that the best advantages can be made at market inflection points.

Also it should not just be seen as a matter of surviving the economic downturn. It’s not just a case of clearing the fence, it’s how you land that determines how fast you are on the flat.

Certainly the move to ‘appropriate’ computing is very interesting for AMD. With PC manufacturers and users both demanding systems more tailored to their usage patterns, it has become apparent that AMD’s ability to produce and match all the major PC components (graphics, processor and chipset) is a noticeable advantage.

For instance, the movement in relative importance from processor performance to graphics performance has been recognised by the market as substantiated by the rapid increase in market share of the very successful HD4000 series of graphics processors. I am really looking forward to the progression of this ‘balanced platform’ trend with the introduction of AMD’s newest processor and graphics families, which will drive this trend even further.

In terms of the biggest threats in 2009, obviously the delay to purchases of PCs in the short term and the then inevitable lowering of ASPs when consumers can delay their purchase of PCs no longer and go for more ‘appropriate’ systems. The challenge will be to maintain margins on a lower ASPs. Those with a more costly brand image will suffer and those that can provide a more cost effective solution will be more successful.


Mark Needham,
Executive Chairman and Founder, Widget


Better or worse are relative terms. Better to be a retailer in 2009 than an Icelandic banker! But compared to 2008, 2009 will be a challenging year for us all. The biggest threat to retailers in 2009 is that the exchange rate will mean that we no longer can expect goods priced in dollars to be cheaper next year than this.

The product launch we are most looking forward to is the shipping of the update of the PocketSurfer, the 2R. The original Pocketsurfer 2 has done well in UK markets; the 2R allows roaming throughout Europe and North America at an attractive 5p per minute, so we look forward to expanding into duty free with this new product.


Michael Sanderson,
Head of Marketing and Design, Exspect


2009 is going to be challenging, but in every sector of every market there are those that will suffer and those that will prosper. Retailers and etailers that continue to offer an engaging clear proposition to consumers will continue to sell products. In among all the doom and gloom of recent months there are some channels posting very positive results.

It’s going to be an interesting time for us to monitor our competitors as it may throw up some acquisitions or collaboration opportunities for Exspect, either here or overseas as our recent developments outside of the UK are proving to be very successful indeed.

The biggest threats to retailers will be stocking the cheapest products purchased purely on price alone. All channels should try to surround themselves with partners that are financially secure, offering additional services via knowledge and expertise, and that adopt a flexible approach to business.

Our collaborative approach has allowed us to build some really strong foundations in 2008, and we expect to build on them in 2009 as it gets more challenging.


Mark Webb,
Head of Media Relations, DSGi


There's no doubt next year will be tough, and we are still proceeding at great pace with our 'Renewal and Transformation' programme, for the business to offer great shopping for our customers. Despite the environment, customers will still respond to a strong combination of value, choice and service. This was clearly demonstrated with the opening of our pilot Currys Megastore near Birmingham, which took some £2.3 million on its open weekend.

In product terms, the technology cycle is fantastic at the moment: netbooks; high definition products; the gaming market; the growth of the free laptop with contract market where we are leading the way; the potential for end-to-end service offered by our TechGuys... These are just some examples of the great new developments for customers.

It is clear that consumer confidence will be fragile in 2009, and retailers need to have a clear plan to deal with the unique challenges of this environment. Customer focus must be core, and as a business we are prudently managing our cash, cutting costs where possible and where the customer is not impacted, improving margin and managing stock to the appropriate levels.

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